IT IS MODI ALL THE WAY PART 27 -THE FINAL TALLY- MY ANALYSIS
This is the last of my Series "It Is Modi All The Way" with reference to Bihar. (the other issues with the same Title will continue). Today is the eighth of October, the Punya Tithi of Lokmanya Jaya Prakash Narayan, the man who introduced Lalu Prasad to the mainstream politics. We remember the Maha Purush for all the good he did and the Chara Purush for all he stood against the values of his Guru. The battle in Bihar is between the criminals and corrupt with whom Nitish joined hands and the new breed of incorruptible political system that Modi is thriving for.
Who wins Bihar, is pre-decided. But Modi is carpet-bombing Bihar, as per his detractor news papers, to see that the close fight is not lost. Let them live in their day-dreams. Reasons for the last minute surge in BJP campaign may be the following two.
1. When you eliminate an enemy, eliminate them in such a way they do not rise again from their ashes. Ensure Bihar is under NDA for at least 25 years. For this an unassailable majority is needed.
2. Ensure that BJP gets 122 seats on its own. 122 out of 160 seems improbable. And a last minute appeal by Modi may turn the tables. This helps BJP in choosing a CM of its own choice without much heart burn in allies.
If blind Media wants to read it otherwise, so be it. Three factors that the Maha Ghat Bandhan wanted to take advantage as the campaign progressed boomeranged on them, thanks to the brains behind BJP Campaign. This is my analysis.
When Hardik Patel started the "My way or High Way" campaign and named Arvind Kejriwal and Nitish Kumar as his torch bearers in bringing about a change in the reservation muddle, Nitish immediately welcomed the initiative. His aim was to wean away upper caste votes to MGB and use Lalu to retain the lower caste base. But, RSS Chief entered the discussion at the right time and said exactly what Hardik said. Before Nitish could regain his breath, Lalu used it as a weapon to project himself as a champion of Mandal Politics and started attacking BJP. He also said he was the pole in Bihar politics thus making Nitish eat a humble pie. BJP, overtly seen as shaken by Bhagvat's ill-conceived statement, covertly used the same to wean away upper castes to its fold thus ensuring none shifted to Nitish camp. So, Hardik did not visit Bihar, as anticipated to address many rallies and Nitish is not so enthused about him now as BJP cleverly hijacked his slogan. BJP has its own vote base among the SC, ST, OBCs intact in view of the guffaw by Nitish. Lalu has good appeal in Yadav and Muslim vote banks. Now these are split, thanks to SP and AIMIM. A few thousand vote shift will see BJP win majority of seats. The internecine war between the two brothers, now separated and now united, only helped BJP.
With the help of pliant Media, Lalu wanted to use the unfortunate incident in Dadri as a weapon to beat BJP with. Nitish was silent on it many days as he knew that would boomerang with AIMIM in the field and SP ruling UP and he suspected BJP and SP were hand in glove. But Lalu was too exited at the prospect of the communal divide that would bring him vote and exceeded his brief and said "Even Hindus eat Beef". This was used by BJP as a stick to beat MGB with. Yadavs adore cow as Goddess. Their livelihood is provided by cows. So, naturally, there is disenchantment with Lalu among them, that BJP used and Modi is taking forward in his speeches. He is also using the "saitan entered me" dialogue by Lalu by saying "Why should saitan enter him only, when others are there?" quip, indicating saitan is happy to enter the body another saitan.
Congress does not want to stake much and be seen as mauled in the polls. First, it sent Rahul away. When BJP mocked that he was sent away as he was seen as liability, Congress was in a catch-22 situation and had to recall him. He returned only a day after Dadri incident. By that time other politicians used the most bizarre incident to their advantage and Rahul missed to politicize it. By not willing to share stage with Lalu, Congress sent another signal that it accepted defeat and did not want to add another blemish to the already existing blemishes. The thin attendance at the Congress rallies shows the cadre is not enthused by the leadership. Congress wants to say they have never tried to win the polls. Candidate announcement was left to Nitish, first time a National Party bent backwards. They did not issue a manifesto. In simple terms, it is not interested to be seen as losing heavily in another poll by trying hard. It is escapism at its best.
As I already analysed earlier, NDA is in for another sweep in Bihar. My prediction is it will get 47% vote share. BJP may sail through with simple majority on its own. With the most opinion polls, that are anti-Modi bandwagons, giving NDA clear edge, now I dare predict seats of between 177 to 189 to NDA and the rest by MGB and others. This is subject to the vote percentage remaining equal to or more than that in LS elections. A reduction may effect chances a little but on the whole no force can stop NDA forming government in Bihar in November. It is Deewali time for the voters of Bihar. good Luck, Bihar! Good Luck, India!
yatra yogesvarah krsno
Swasthi prajabhya paripalayantham,
Nyayena margena maheem maheesa,
Gobrahmanebhyo shubhamasthu nithyam,
Loka samastha Sukhino bhavantu.
Kale varshathu parjanya,
Prauthwee sasya shalini,
Deso yam kshobha rahitha,
SAjjana santhu nirbhaya.
Aputhra puthrina santhu,
Puthrina santhu pouthrina,
Santhu jeevanthu sarada satham.
Sarvathra sukhina santhu,
Sarve santhu niramaya,
Sarve bhadrani pasyanthu,
Ma kaschid dukha bhag bhaveth.
Om Sarvesham swasthir bhavthu,
Om Sarvesham santhir Bhavathu,
Om Sarvesham poornam Bhavathu,
Om Sarvesham Mangalam Bhavathu.
Om Santhi, Om Santhi, Om Santhi